W I G N A L L
Chill Your Globe
I’ve seen several newspaper comment pieces this week, bemoaning the people who cite the current cold snap as proof that the whole global warming debate is a load of nonsense. They point out that we can no more use one cold spell as proof against global warming than one warm spell can be used as proof in its favour (even though the “warmists” often do exactly that).
Of course, there’s a delicious irony in this cold spell for most of the Northern Hemisphere (Canada and Alaska are unseasonably warm, and Cyprus has just enjoyed the hottest New Year’s Day on record) coinciding with the Copenhagen Climate Summit. But this is a normal weather experience, and I’m sure there are some who will argue that this kind of weather could actually become more common as a result of global warming (in their defence, the warmist lobby has always stressed that weather could become more erratic rather than simply becoming warmer).
The issue for me is slightly different, and summed up perfectly by the activities of the UK Met Office, one of the key institutions in the global warming debate. The Met Office has been very clear to point out this week that the current events relate to weather rather than climate (a great example of doublespeak if ever there was) and also that its medium term weather predictions are in the realms of probability rather than exact science. The trouble is, the Met Office is rather too keen to promote its predictions as exact science when they appear to support the argument for global warming, as they did when, as recently as early December, they predicted a milder than average winter, as they did when they predicted a barbecue summer in 2009 (thousands decided to holiday at home, and experienced a cool and wet summer instead). The subtext of these predictions is always the same – THIS IS WHAT GLOBAL WARMING IS ALL ABOUT – but when the reality goes the other way, it’s dismissed simply as WEATHER.
So this is my point, and runs to the source of why I’ve become a global warming sceptic…. But before I get to that, let me just point out that my views have flip-flopped on this subject, not least because I’m naturally inclined towards anything that will help to create a cleaner, richer environment. In other words, please don’t assume that I’m a classic Bush-style head in the sand carbon guzzler.
The reason I’ve become a sceptic is that I see too many scientists behaving in not very scientific ways. As we’ve now discovered, data has been manipulated, but that’s hardly more controversial than the propagandist massaging of facts for the media, the shouting down of dissenting voices, even when their arguments are put in reasonable fashion, the label of “climate expert” being attached to scientists from any discipline who choose to support the warmist cause, the barely disguised anti-capitalist tendencies of many campaigners (the people who are bold enough to fly to Africa so that they can lecture Africans on why they shouldn’t have electricity or cars), and so on and so on.
The net result of all this chicanery is that I’m no longer convinced that the planet is warming, and even less convinced that any change that might be taking place is man-made. How can I be convinced when, as a layman, I know I’m being fed propaganda and also know that my day-to-day experience of the suddenly discredited “weather” suggests things are continuing pretty much as usual?
I’m a firm believer in science and its power to improve our lives and the environment we live in (once again, it’s worth pointing out that many “warmists” are anti-science, and while they’re keen to see us retreat to some sort of subsistence economy, they’re remarkably dismissive when technological solutions are put forward). But when scientists stop acting like scientists, when they bend the facts to support beliefs, rather than vice versa, is it any wonder that non-scientists like myself are inclined to dismiss their prophecies of doom and throw another log on the fire?






























I’m struck by how striking the similarities are between the global warming debate and that surrounding HIV/AIDS. Yesterday I watched this trailer for a documentary called ‘House of Numbers’ – http://www.apple.com/trailers/independent/houseofnumbers/, which calls into doubt not only the link between HIV and AIDs, but also the very existence of HIV. It looks quite fair and balanced, while challenging the orthodoxy presented in the mainstream media.
Reading this assessment of the film sheds a rather different light on the views presented: http://www.badscience.net/2009/09/house-of-numbers/.
What’s striking about the HIV/AIDS debate is how strongly it echoes the smoking/cancer ‘debate’ that raged for forty years. A fine summary of this can be found here:
http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/2008/04/07/doubt-is-our-product-pr-versus-science/
With more detail available here:
http://lightbucket.wordpress.com/category/public-relations/tobacco-public-relations/
With regard to global warming, I see the cause of it as being something of red herring in any case. As you suggest in your post, there are plenty of compelling reasons to reduce dependency on foreign oil, switch to renewable sources of energy and invest in new technology that taking action on all of the above shouldn’t hinge on the possibility of climate change.
Comment by Vincent — January 11, 2010 @ 10:16 am
In fairness, the weather/climate distinction isn’t doublespeak. Weather is local and medium term at longest. Climate is continental at rough minimum, and long-term. Organisations like the Met Office have had years of people saying: “Global warming? How can they make that prediction with such certainty when they can’t even get the weather right tomorrow?” Consequently they’ve also spent years trying to explain that with weather they can make very specific predictions in the short term (and wobblier ones in the medium), but that climate operates on a whole different timespan and remains extremely vague – in general, the world will get warmer and local weather will get more extreme (apart from anything else because a warmer atmosphere and warmer oceans mean more energy at play), but that has no specific bearing on local weather beyond providing context in which such things happen.
Vincent and you are right that the cause is more or less irrelevant given that the solutions are advantageous/necessary anyway. However, arguing about the cause and/or existence of a changing climate is used in the vast majority not by people saying “but we might as well change anyway” but by people saying “it’s all fine, carry on, drill, baby, drill”. People whose opinions are given equal weight in mainstream media ‘debates’ to, say, the IPCC despite the fact that one has a position based on evidence (one can argue the implications and the quality, but it does at least exist) and one has a position based on pixie dust and rainbows.
Distortions of the truth are far more common on the latter side, too; trash like ‘The Great Global Warming Swindle’ continues to be made and fed as counterpoint to the scientific consensus, despite the fact it’s full of shit we just made up, rather like those who continue to insist that glaciers are advancing or there’s more sea ice now than ever before. It’s not presenting new evidence for the reverse argument, it’s just lies and garbage. I keep half an eye on realclimate.org and I don’t remember seeing anything coming out that suggests an actual genuine challenge to anthropogenic climate change. Plenty which tweaks a prediction this way or that, changes an assumption made here or alters a theory there, but little or nothing to suggest a real body of evidence on the other side of the argument.
In the main – not here, I hasten to add, but online and in the newspapers – I don’t find arguments over global warming similar to the old smoking debate (“doubt” aside) or the wildly inventive AIDS “controversy” so much as the argument between creationism and evolution. One side has a fairly large, albeit not 100% complete (as it never will be), body of evidence on its side, the other just resorts to “nonsense some guy made up that happens to tally with what I think is right”. The bulk of the anti-climate change arguments I see are the rough equivalent of Kirk Cameron’s wonderfully deranged banana.
Comment by John R — January 11, 2010 @ 11:35 am
Incidentally, on the topic of “doubt” and Vince’s link, where it points out that doubt bought the tobacco companies 40 years of wiggle room, when I did my dissertation on climate change (yea or nay) 11 years ago, I was working from published data some of which was 10 or more years old, and the evidence was solid even then. It was firm enough for the UNFCCC to be signed at the time of Rio in ‘92. Despite that, doubt persists (to be fair, it’s a more complex, less firm-sounding message this time compared to “SMOKING KILLS YOU”) and we’ve done (and, I predict, will continue to do) pretty much fuck all for getting on 20 years now, halfway to what tobacco eked out already.
Comment by John R — January 11, 2010 @ 12:06 pm
I think the thing that really concerns me, and you haven’t allayed those fears, is that much of the language and many of the arguments used by the warming lobby are so unscientific. I’m afraid many of the claims made by this lobby are as extraordinary as those made by the oil-funded lobbyists. I’ve also seen a number of scientists producing evidence that any warming that might be taking place isn’t anthropogenic, but they’re shouted down in slightly hysterical fashion, which once again makes the lay observer suspicious.
Again, as a lay observer, I see sites like – http://wattsupwiththat.com/ – and they seem more rational and methodical than much of the alarmist stuff I’m seeing from the warmist lobby.
Finally, John, weather is surely the result of climate? And my point really is that the warmist lobby has continually sold us climate change in terms of the weather we can expect to experience. They can’t use that tool and then dismiss it as soon as the weather plays to the other side.
Seriously, if there is a problem we need to address, the scientific community needs to stop pointing the finger and getting hysterical, and start acting and talking like scientists.
Comment by Kevin Wignall — January 11, 2010 @ 1:43 pm
Sorry, forgot to mention the other point. As I said in my post, the warmist bandwagon has also been jumped on by a lot of people who dream of us returning to some sort of self-sufficient agrarian society. These are the people who refuse to accept that there’s any solution except drastically cutting carbon emissions, the people who believe we should deny the developing world the chance to enjoy the luxuries we take for granted. The scientists would also do well to distance themselves from these people, no matter how useful the association currently seems, not least because a lot of these people are actually anti-science.
Just as science proved the solution to the Malthusian scaremongering of centuries past, so science will be the solution this time (if indeed, there is a problem that needs “solving”). But the result will be a planet on which man has a greater impact, not a lesser one – if the net result of this is developing the technology we need to control the climate into the future, all well and good. But I doubt that’s what many of the most vociferous climate protesters want to see.
Comment by Kevin Wignall — January 11, 2010 @ 4:44 pm
Oh yes, heartily agree about the “let us return to the trees, my brothers!” types. People who genuinely believe that we can somehow support 7bn people and rising with organic farming and no machinery.
Weather is a result of climate, but it’s not a clear, direct “Global Variable A will cause Local Variable B” type relationship, which so many people seem to think (the prime example being localised cold spells), nor does it take place over anything like a nice, clear everyday timespan. In the same way that I don’t get a cavity every day I eat a bag of sweets, every month the world creeps another tenth of a percent of a degree warmer doesn’t mean it won’t snow in June or never get into double figures all summer. Look at the same picture over 20 years and we’ll see my teeth slowly falling out and distinct changes in local weather, but we can’t really point to a moment in either process when it ‘happens’ (equally, I might never get a cavity, but that doesn’t mean anything; you take a hundred sweet-eaters and most of them will, etc. etc.). Anything that happens – or doesn’t happen – in single short periods of time really doesn’t mean anything either way (likewise, anyone pointing to one particular hot summer, as they do, and saying, “There you go. Proof of global warming.”).
(The current snow burst, IIRC from another link of Vince’s was, as you alluded to, due to unseasonal heat in the Arctic temporarily diverting the Gulf Stream away from us.)
Looking at Watts Up With That? they’re not doing too good a job of digging into some of the things they’re covering, because, I’d suggest from reading around the site, of their innate biases. The Mojab Latif business, for instance, is total guff, misrepresentations of actual science, and has been for a long time. The words “published in the Daily Mail” would probably have alerted Watts if he’d been a Brit. (On a cursory read, he also seems to fall foul of several fairly well refuted myths.)
As for the lingo used by lobby groups, I’d merrily ignore all from either side, and the same with every mainstream media outlet. Very few of them do more than engage in Chinese Whispers with ideas that seem to mesh with their own preconceptions, not necessarily because they’re all monsters, but largely because they don’t really understand the subject. I continually prod people in the direction of realclimate.org if only because it remains the most propaganda-free, accessible – and free to question – stepping off point that I know for what is a very broad and at times counter-intuitive subject.
The language used in the debate may be a factor of the media it takes place in. Science comes across very poorly in mass media; the news productions of the day don’t like lengthy, considered quotes which say things like “probably” or “could”. They want “will definitely” and “OMG we’re all going to die!” Some papers, in particular, have a long and proud record of either twisting quotes or completely inventing things to make a livelier story.
Comment by John R — January 11, 2010 @ 10:39 pm